Aside from a hiccup against Virginia Tech, NC State football had coasted for most of the first half of the season en route to a 4-1 record before the game against North Carolina. To say that the team’s success was due to the efforts of one man would mean forgetting about all the contributions everyone on the team had made up to that point, but whether it’s fair to say it or not, the team’s performance picked up only after the introduction of redshirt sophomore Devin Leary into the lineup.
But after Leary’s long-term injury against Duke, and a devastating 48-21 loss to the Tar Heels, the year that had, up to this point, seemed improbable, now looks like it’s regressing back to the season that was expected of this group, not because of any error in play, but because this is now almost an entirely different team.
Leary’s injury makes all the headlines, and deservedly so, but other key members of the Pack have succumbed to injuries as well. Graduate student Tyrone Riley was injured in the Duke game alongside Leary. A pair of safeties went down against Virginia Tech in sophomore Rakeim Ashford, who’s out for the season, and redshirt freshman Khalid Martin. Even in the game against North Carolina, more players found themselves on the sidelines nursing injuries instead of on the field, like redshirt sophomore Payton Wilson and junior Ricky Person Jr.
Despite the injuries, NC State was chugging along as best it could, but it’s apparent now, the Leary injury is the straw that broke the camel’s back.
NC State is still 4-2 heading into a bye week, and the team is only two wins away from what would normally be the bowl-eligibility benchmark (the NCAA has opted to forgo the usual requirements for bowl eligibility this season). But instead of getting six wins early and setting its sights on eight or nine wins, NC State football may find itself struggling to get to that six-win benchmark, if it gets there at all.
After the bye week is a game against Miami who, like North Carolina, are contending for a spot in the ACC Championship game. With Leary at quarterback, the Wolfpack had more than just a puncher’s chance to win, but a chance to get into a real shootout with the Hurricanes. With backup redshirt junior Bailey Hockman, NC State’s last opportunity to get a signature win is now almost a guaranteed loss.
As for the rest of the schedule, a healthy NC State squad would’ve been able to sweep the rest of their opponents easily had it played like it did early in the season, but what was once a forgone conclusion is now up in the air, and it’s all the more likely that NC State will find a way to lose a game or two it was supposed to win.
After Miami is a game against Florida State, who have been the doormat of the ACC in recent years. After the Seminoles beat UNC, something the Wolfpack couldn’t do, then who’s to say NC State can beat the Noles as easily as it should?
Liberty isn’t even an ACC team, and the game against the Flames was meant to be one of the annual tune-up games NC State has on its schedule every year. But after seeing the Flames beat Syracuse, is Liberty really going to be that easy of a matchup?
There have been a lot of questions asked and there aren’t a lot of answers. With the future being so murky, it isn’t a given that the games against Syracuse and Georgia Tech will result in wins either. Call it an overreaction, but there’s a chance the Wolfpack sees only one or two wins the rest of the way.
There is good news however: In the first six games of the season, NC State has been on the road four times. After the bye week, NC State will play at home for four of the next five games. With restrictions in place on how many fans can enter Carter-Finley Stadium, the home-field advantage won’t be as potent as in past seasons, but it will be there nevertheless, even if at a diminished level. Besides, more home games in a row means less time spent traveling and more time spent at practice, watching game film and preparing for game day.
So how will this season turn out? It’s tough to say with an entire half of the season still to play, and with the Pack’s next game being two weeks from now. But while this team has its flaws, so do the teams that NC State must play this year, and the rest of the schedule isn’t nearly as tough as the gauntlet the Wolfpack ran through to start the year. I think it’s likely they’ll lose a couple games, with Liberty and Georgia Tech probably being games NC State will find hard to win, along with the beatdown that’s sure to come against Miami. That still puts NC State at 6-5, well within bowl contention. But I’m a firm believer in the fact that State can find a way to beat Georgia Tech, and even the currently undefeated Liberty Flames, putting them at 8-3 and making them one of the top teams in the ACC this year. Despite how many players have gone down this year, I’m sure an 8-3 record would be reason for celebration in Raleigh.
But the only thing consistent about NC State football is it’s inconsistency, and while on paper NC State can finish the year strong with an eight-win season, conventional wisdom and the experience of past seasons suggest that somehow the Wolfpack will mess things up and squander the 4-1 headstart that Leary had given it. With how precarious the roster situation is and with key players out on gurneys, it’s a reality that’s more and more likely by the day. Losing four out of five after the Carolina game, or even five in a row, didn’t seem even remotely probable after State’s fourth win of the season against Duke. But after injuries have piled up on both offense and defense, is it really that unlikely?
