NC State researchers anticipate that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be significantly more active compared to averages from the past 66 years. 

From 1950–2014, an average of about 11 named storms occurred in the Atlantic basin, which comprises the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This year, the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, can expect 15 to 18 hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic basin, according to research conducted by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. Of those named storms, three to five may become major hurricanes. 

Two to five named storms may occur in the Gulf of Mexico, with one to three becoming hurricanes. Xie’s data predicts that two to four tropical cyclones may form in the Caribbean, with one to two developing into a hurricane. 

Xie analyzed more than 100 years of data about Atlantic Ocean hurricane intensity and positions to predict the number of storms that will form in each ocean basin. The research also takes into account other variables such as sea-surface temperatures and weather patterns.

Xie’s research is also in collaboration with Joseph Guinness, an assistant professor of statistics; Montserrat Fuentes, a professor of statistics; Bin Liu, an adjunct assistant professor in marine, earth and atmospheric sciences; and Marcela Alfaro-Cordoba, a graduate research assistant in statistics.