COLUMN: 10 wins or bust

Double-digit wins. It’s a statement of college football, a sign that you’re one of the top teams in the nation. If you can get through a season and finish 10-3 or better, you’ve made your mark as a true contender.

Unfortunately for NC State fans, it’s a record they haven’t seen since 2002, when junior quarterback Phillip Rivers led the Pack to an 8-0 start and finished the season at 11-3. Since then, Rivers led an illustrious 17-year, arguably Hall of Fame career, led the league in passing yards, made eight Pro Bowls and retired.

Yet in that same time span, NC State football hasn’t even marked 10 wins, let alone Rivers’ 11-3 record.

In his 13 years as head coach of the Wolfpack, Dave Doeren has produced four seasons of nine wins, but there’s always been some sort of mishap or falloff that causes the Pack to drift off course. Most recently in 2023, NC State lost to Kansas State in the Pop Tart Bowl, blowing Doeren’s opportunity at his first 10-win season with a Power Four school.

Before that, the Wolfpack had an opportunity in 2021 against UCLA in the Holiday Bowl, but the match was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak. In 2018, NC State was blown out by Texas A&M in the Gator Bowl, finishing the season at 9-4.

It seems that no matter what, Doeren and the Wolfpack simply cannot get over the double-digit hump, falling short every single time. But that can all change in the 2025 season.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. This is said every year. But this time, the stats back it up.

For years, NC State staked its claim based on its staunch defense, with the mentality of holding teams to 20 points or less and easing worries on the offensive end. But in 2025, NC State has exploded onto the scene as one of the top offensive schools.

For the first time since Devin Leary, the Wolfpack has a returning quarterback in sophomore CJ Bailey. In fact, nearly its entire offensive core returned, from senior tight end Justin Joly to redshirt sophomore running back Hollywood Smothers. Gone are the revolving doors in the transfer portal. Gone are the questions at quarterback. NC State has its guys, and now it’s time to prove it.

Through their first three games, Bailey and Smothers have looked nothing short of masterful. Bailey marks a 71% completion rate with 719 yards, an 8/1 touchdown to turnover ratio and the 12th-highest QBR in the nation. Smothers has turned into the best running back in the ACC with games of 76, 140 and 164 yards. Together, they’ve turned the NC State offense into a powerhouse, averaging 31 points per game.

But of course, there has to be balance. As the Wolfpack’s offense has grown and developed, the defense has fallen into disarray. Gone are the red-and-white legends that anchored the defense for years. No more Payton Wilson. No more Davin Vann. No more Aydan White. The 2025 defense has looked like a shell of what it’s once been. Allowing 31 points to Virginia and 24 points in a single half to Wake Forest are alarming statistics.

There’s no doubt that the offense can hang with the best of the best, but none of that matters if the defense allows a score almost every single drive. It shut out Wake Forest in the second half, but if NC State allows 24 points in the first half to some of the other big names it plays later in the season, the game will be over before halftime. It’s simply unreasonable for the offense to have to score every single possession just to win.

Looking at NC State’s schedule on paper, it should win its next three games. Duke is 1-2, most recently falling to Tulane. Campbell is 0-3 and hasn’t even played a Power Four school yet. And after lofty preseason expectations, Virginia Tech started the season 0-3 and just recently fired head coach Brent Fry after getting blown out at home by Old Dominion.

The bar should be a 6-0 start. After that, it gets tricky.

NC State then travels to South Bend to take on No. 24 Notre Dame. To be fair, the Fighting Irish have opened the season 0-2, but the losses were to then-No. 10 Miami and then-No. 16 Texas A&M. In NC State’s last two matchups against Notre Dame, it got blown out by 21 points both times. As hot as NC State has been and as cold as Notre Dame is, it’s simply unreasonable at this point in time to expect to leave one of the most iconic stadiums in the country with a win.

At one point, NC State will also face off against Pitt and UNC, both of which should be wins, but the biggest concerns are among the other three games — No. 18 Georgia Tech, No. 4 Miami and No. 7 FSU. All three teams have been scorching hot recently. Georgia Tech just knocked off then-No. 12 Clemson on a last-second field goal to remain undefeated, Miami has looked nothing short of unstoppable after a 49-12 domination of then-No. 18 South Florida and Florida State has been one of the biggest surprises in the country, averaging 54 points in its two wins, including a shocking upset of then-No. 8 Alabama.

Don’t be surprised if NC State steals at least one of these games, but to steal all three after playing them back-to-back-to-back would be nothing short of a miracle. In theory, it all comes down to that ill-fated bowl game, traveling in with a 9-3 record. Doeren is 4-6 in such games and hasn’t taken a bowl trophy home since 2017.

The bar is high for NC State and it has all the talent needed to break expectations, but first it must battle its own demons and break its 10-win curse for the first time in over two decades.