On March 4, following his invasion of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a telling press conference. Many Western commentators observing Russian actions toward Ukraine took the view that after the Olympics in Sochi—and more than 23 years of a post-Soviet Russia—Putin would calculate a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine to be against his interests. As it turns out, many Western commentators, including this one, may have been wrong.
During the now infamous press conference, Putin displayed himself as someone who is at least perceiving reality very differently from the West, and at worst completely detached from reality altogether. Russian troops were storming Ukrainian military installations in Crimea as Putin denied Russia was involved militarily at all.
“There are many uniforms there that are similar. You can go to a store and buy any kind of uniform,” Putin said.
The squadrons storming Crimea weren’t Russian units; they were “local defense units.” Two weeks later, Russian military exercises were being conducted just off Ukraine’s eastern border. If observers were gullible enough to believe Putin at the time, Russian actions since then illustrate that scenario as unlikely.
Putin has indicated beyond the shadow of a doubt that he and the United States are reading from different playbooks. President Barack Obama has correctly insisted upon a diplomatic solution, while insisting that the vote in Crimea to join the Russian federation is illegitimate, resulting in intimidation from Moscow. U.S. economic sanctions put in place yesterday target specific officials, including those close to Putin and former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. The U.S. did not sanction Putin himself, leaving room to up the ante if the situation continues to escalate. Unfortunately, as indicated by the bruising the DOW took last Thursday, Russian banks have likely already anticipated sanctions. A vast amount of Russian money was taken out of the U.S. beforehand, and likely placed in London or Germany, where governments are more reticent to take action against the Kremlin.
If the U.S. was beaten to the punch, it’s unlikely that Putin is going to stop his expansion with Crimea. Still, that doesn’t mean an invasion of Ukraine is imminent, although it’s a definite possibility. Putin may be acting irrationally according to a Western worldview, but if his goal is to reconstruct the former Soviet Union, it will require more than an invasion of a former territory. Russia will seek to frustrate U.S. interests via backchannels in places such as Syria and Iraq, where U.S. foreign policy is already shaky. If the U.S. doesn’t play its cards perfectly, distractions will gift Putin with the tool of surprise, which he will exploit yet again.
If a Ukrainian invasion occurs, it must be met with military force by the U.S. and its allies. Part of the reason Putin continues to push the envelope during this crisis has to do with the fact that he believes Obama is bluffing—a direct result of missteps on the “redline” in Syria. Mistakes such as that are unaffordable now. It’s not clear what the Russian president is thinking, but his previous attempt to annex Georgia in 2008 indicates he isn’t interested in reclaiming only one territory. The time has come to consider a systematic annexation of former territories piece by piece.
In the meantime, the current level of economic sanctions is regarded by the Russians as “toothless” and “symbolic.” The U.S. should take severely drastic measures against Putin during what increasingly looks like the run-up to a military standoff. When this started, there was talk of boycotting the G20 and G8 summits. This is no longer appropriate. Instead, Russia should be barred from these groups altogether. The United Nations needs to consider possible actions against Russia, including the legitimacy of its Security Council seat. Finally, the U.S. needs to get the Navy out of the wild goose chase that is Malaysian Flight 370, and into the Black Sea.
“Perestroika” literally means “restructuring.” As the Cold War ended, “perestroika” was the term for the policies that rebuilt Russia from the ashes of the Soviet Union. Now, in Putin’s hands, a new perestroika threatens to rebuild to Soviet Union from the ashes of sovereign states—that’s a liquidation of democracy the world can’t afford.