Last week during a trip to Washington, D.C., my girlfriend and I were on a stroll through Georgetown when we spotted a group standing in front of a brick building, apart from the crowd. As we got closer I realized the building was the Ukrainian Embassy, and the group was Ukrainian nationals plastering up pictures of loved ones and friends who lost their lives in the chaotic protests that erupted there in January.
The sight put human faces on what would otherwise be news from a distant country, one that few Americans could likely point out on a map. Suddenly, though, it seems the United States’ strategic interests have been centered around Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military into Crimea, a peninsula on the southern tip of the country.
Citizens of the U.S. should care about what is going on in Ukraine, even if most of them don’t know anything about it. The fighting is centered on whether or not the country should join the European Union, a bloc of countries that constitute one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners and constitute one of the largest worldwide economic systems. A growing EU partnership means economic benefits for the U.S. and broader stability in Europe. Russia, whose main exports are oil, gas and vodka, is opposed to Ukraine’s ascension to the EU—Putin sees the country not as a sovereign state, but as a Russian territory. As Putin infamously told President George W. Bush early in his presidency, Ukraine is “not a country.” Russian interests lie in keeping Ukraine and its weakened economy dependent on security and stimulus from Russia, putting the government and the Ukrainian people at odds. Now, Russia has intervened to ensure Ukraine stays out of the EU and remains dependent on Moscow’s support, despite warnings from President Barack Obama, who insists Russian intervention will “have costs,” but failed to specific what those costs may be.
Despite the obvious echoes of the Cold War in the current situation, hawks should think twice before suggesting the U.S. should launch an intervention of its own. Global opinions of the U.S. are higher than they’ve been in years, as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down. Many across the globe saw those conflicts as imperial, mismanaged and, especially with regards to Iraq, illegitimate. The American people are sour on military intervention, too. The U.S. should let Russia fail on its own, as the rest of the world will surely disapprove of Moscow’s actions as being just as flawed as the U.S.’s actions in the Middle East last decade.
Some commentators think that we are entering an “Age of Putin,” with Russia’s president seen by his people as a strong leader who has protected Russian interests. Hawks say the U.S. should flex its muscles to drive him out of Ukraine. But Russian citizens also see corruption and outright bribery—Putin poured billions into the defunct Ukrainian government to distract it from the EU. The imprisonment of the punk rock band Pussy Riot, for speaking out against Russia’s homophobic laws, stoked protests within the country’s borders. Coming off the heels of the Sochi Olympics, it seems that Putin’s moment has already passed. Sending in U.S. forces would provoke him and escalate an isolated incident into a full-blown regional conflict.
There are diplomatic solutions the U.S. and its allies should pursue. For instance, Obama and global leaders could boycott the G-8 summit, which would be a huge snub toward Putin, a very public scolding of his actions. Economic sanctions are worth considering. The U.S. is producing more of its own energy than it has at any time in modern history and could use that supply to undercut Russian exports. Political and economic pressure will force Putin to pull back.
No one wants to see an expansionist Russia, but U.S. military intervention will unnecessarily lead to more pictures hanging on the front of the Ukrainian Embassy. Real human tragedy already exists in Ukraine, and U.S. policy should seek containment—of both Russia’s imperial ambitions, and further human tragedy that escalation would cause.
