NC State football is heading back to Raleigh to host its first home ACC matchup of the season against Louisville on Friday. As the red-and-white look to stay undefeated in the ACC, here are some bets we like for the game.
NC State (+3) vs Louisville
In its first conference game of the season, NC State barely scraped past Virginia thanks to a game-winning field goal. It was a closer game than many expected, but getting a road win in the ACC is still an accomplishment. The Wolfpack offense felt off its rhythm the entire game, aside from a few big plays from freshman wide receiver Kevin Concepcion.
As for the Cardinals, they’re off to a great start under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm, currently boasting a 4-0 record that includes two ACC wins. Louisville is coming off a dominant 56-28 win over Boston College, which explains why the visitors are the favorites in this game. Brohm brought in experienced quarterback Jack Plummer, who has led the Cardinals to an average of 43 points per game that ranks fourth in the ACC.
Friday night’s matchup will be Louisville’s toughest test of the season. The opponents they have faced so far this year have a combined record of six wins and nine losses. The Cardinals are also coming into a hostile environment as NC State hosts its first night game of the season. Expect NC State to keep it close as Louisville continues to find their identity under Brohm.
Pick: NC State +3
Over/Under 55.5 total points
After a 45-point performance against VMI, there was hope that the Wolfpack’s offense could pick it up moving forward. However, that was not the case — it was only able to put up 24 points against one of the worst defenses in the ACC last week. Armstrong struggled to complete passes to anyone other than Concepcion, recording a 50% completion rate against Virginia.
Meanwhile, Louisville’s offense has gotten off to a great start, scoring 30-plus points in both of its ACC matchups. The Cardinals’ defense has also allowed 28 and 34 points against in those matchups, making this the perfect opportunity for NC State to put up some points. Although both defenses rank in the top five in the ACC for total points allowed, expect to see some offensive fireworks from both teams.
Pick: Over 55.5 points
Player props
After a narrow win against Virginia in its first ACC game of the season, the Wolfpack is looking to make a statement against Louisville. Armstrong has shown flashes of his passing ability with two games of at least 260 passing yards, but he has proven to be inconsistent with two games of 180 yards or less.
Over each of their first four games, the Cardinals’ defense has let up 165 rushing yards or less. However, in Louisville’s three games against Power Five opponents this season, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 302 passing yards per game.
Expect to see a heavy passing attack from the Wolfpack and potentially Armstrong’s first 300-yard game at NC State.
Pick: Brennan Armstrong over 238.5 passing yards
KC Concepcion is coming off his best game of the season, where he caught six passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns in NC State’s narrow victory over Virginia. He seems to have found his rhythm in the offense and is the primary receiver for the Wolfpack.
In their three games against Power Five schools this season, Cardinals have let at least one opposing receiver per game record 85 or more receiving yards. The Wolfpack will rely heavily on the passing attack, and Concepcion deservedly attracts the most passes from Armstrong and averages 10.8 yards per catch. These factors create the perfect opportunity for another great game from Concepcion.
Pick: KC Concepcion over 60.5 receiving yards
