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When most people, college students included, hear about a crime wave in the news, the response is always the same: get tough on crime.
So when something like the e-mail alert sent out 6:59 a.m. March 11 by Campus Police reporting a robbery on Dan Allen Drive comes out, people are going to come out demanding action (and possibly an increased right to defend themselves).
And for the past week, the News and Observer has run stories regarding multiple calls for reforms to the parole and probation system in North Carolina. The reason? Criminals apparently commit more crimes after being released early or sentenced to probation — in particular, the tragic Eve Carson murder in 2008 is held up as the prime reason why the probation system needs to be fixed.
But before we demand the N.C. General Assembly pours millions into the corrections system or scream at Campus Police to make crime on campus go away, we need to take a step back and apply some logic and science to the problem.
The News and Observer reported 580 people have been killed since 2000 by a person out on parole or probation. But the FBI’s annual Uniform Crime Reports show that North Carolina has seen 532 murders in 2004, 585 in 2005, 540 in 2006 and 585 in 2007. If we assume there were about 550 murders each year since 2000, then parolees and convicted criminals sentenced to probation have accounted for a little more than one-ninth of the murders since 2000.
Thus, there is little reason to believe people on parole and probation are accounting for a wave of homicide that is flooding the streets of Raleigh and other N.C. cities in a tidal wave of blood. There is even less of a reason to believe armed vigilantes will be at every street corner to rob us, forcing the state to put more probation officers on the streets to keep an eye on criminals out on parole. I urge caution in demanding any overhaul that gets “tough on crime” — an article in the The Prison Journal reports expanded supervision has been associated with negative probation and parole outcomes.
Studies show intensive supervision parole and probation programs have no significant differences in rearrest rates. Translation: watching a prisoner who is out on parole won’t reduce the chance of said prisoner committing a crime while out of the pen.
I’m not saying the system isn’t broken. When parolees commit 11 percent of all murders in the state since 2000, there is plenty of room for improvement. But we can’t throw more law enforcement at crime and expect it to crush criminals instantly — we need to think it through.
E-mail Paul your thoughts on probation and law enforcement to [email protected].