It’s the day after the polls closed. Did students vote? Maybe they did, but on average we doubt it. According to the Pack Poll, slightly more than 60 percent of students said they planned to vote. That’s unlikely for several reasons. First, less than 60 percent of students said they voted in 2008. Presidential elections invariably bring out more voters than midterms, so why would a higher percentage of students plan to vote in 2010? Secondly, self-reports of voting intentions are notorious for overestimating actual turnout. Students might have good intentions but fail to deliver, or they know they are supposed to say they plan to vote even if they know they won’t.
The Pack Poll tried to increase turnout by embedding an experiment that encouraged students to vote. In the experiment, the Poll divided respondents into five random groups. Some students received a version of the poll that didn’t ask about the election, while others were asked questions about the election but were not encouraged to vote. The group asked about the election without being encouraged to vote provided a baseline estimate of projected turnout. The remaining three groups of students saw either Student Body President Kelly Hook or celebrities Will Smith and Kanye West encouraging them to vote.
Political scientists have been doing field experiments to see what promotes turnout for about a decade. The most effective way of increasing turnout is to send someone to your door to remind you it’s time to vote. The Pack Poll study is different by focusing specifically on student turnout, and also by looking at the role of celebrities. Many people believe organizations like Rock the Vote, which relies heavily on celebrities asking young people to vote, are effective. We are not so sure this is accurate. The study allows us to measure the effectiveness of this strategy and to see if celebrities are any more effective than a credible fellow student asking you to vote.
The results showed that being asked to vote created a backlash against voting. Looking only at registered voters, 82 percent of students said they would probably vote when they were not encouraged to vote. Yet, the percentage of likely student voters dropped to 68 percent when they saw Hook, Smith or West asking them to vote. Looking deeper, there was no evidence showing students responded differently to Hook than either Smith or West. Simply being told it is important to vote makes some students less likely to want to vote.
Since North Carolina has early voting, the Poll also looked to see how unregistered students might respond to the appeals. The results showed the same pattern of responses. While 50 percent of unregistered voters thought they would still probably vote, the percentage of students intending to vote declined to 33 percent if they were encouraged to vote by Hook, Smith or West.
Of course, this single study is not the last word on the subject, but it points to the danger of naively thinking turnout can be increased simply by telling people to go vote. Many assume celebrities are persuasive and can get young people to vote, but maybe it’s time to rethink how we encourage students to vote. In fact, this strategy might even have the opposite effect, depending on the messenger. People need a substantive reason to vote. Hey, MTV: You’re doing it wrong.
