In 2008, President Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina’s electoral votes since Jimmy Carter won in 1976. Many credited young, first-time voters for making his victory possible. Voter turnout is expected to drop as it always does in midterm elections. Republicans are expected to win a majority of the U.S. House of Representatives, and possibly retake the U.S. Senate, too. How do State students plan to vote?
According to the Pack Poll, Richard Burr is preferred by 40 percent of N.C. State undergraduates, while Elaine Marshall is preferred by just 28 percent of them. The Libertarian candidate was backed by 6 percent. Surprisingly, 26 percent of students polled said they were undecided just a week before the election, suggesting Marshall might still have the ability to catch Burr on Election Day.
But before Democrats get too excited, Burr appears to benefit from the so-called “enthusiasm gap.” Similar to national trends for adults, Burr’s lead over Marshall widens among those most likely to vote. Students who said they were probably or definitely going to vote, or had already voted, supported Burr over Marshall. Conversely, Marshall polls about evenly with Burr among students who said they probably or definitely would not vote. Further inspection of the polling data supports the view that a Burr victory will materialize primarily by mobilizing fellow Republicans to vote, rather than through converting Obama supporters to conservative causes. Students who call themselves Republicans, for example, were simply more likely to say they planned on voting compared to Democrats.
For state offices, Republican candidates will benefit from who turns out to vote. The generic Republican candidate for state House leads the Democrat candidate 48 percent to 39 percent among students most likely to vote. Republican candidates not only benefit from the enthusiasm gap, but also from being perceived as better at handling more of the important issues facing the state. Respondents were asked which state level political party, Republicans, Democrats or neither, would do a better job handling six issues. A plurality felt Republicans would do better than Democrats at handling the economy, jobs, the budget and illegal immigration. Democrats were seen as better only at handling public education. Students were evenly split on which party would better handle the issue of health care, and most said there was no difference between Democrats and Republicans when it came to reducing corruption.
Undergraduate students’ political feelings are very similar to adults in N.C. Two recent polls of likely voters, one by the Civitas Institute, a right-leaning group that conducts non-partisan polling, and another by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic group, find that N.C. voters prefer Republicans for the General Assembly by margins of 8 to 11 percent over Democrats. Likewise, a survey of North Carolina adults conducted by Dr. Cobb, the professor of the Pack Poll, finds that although adults’ political preferences are evenly divided, likely voters are siding with Republicans.
Overall, the implications of the Pack Poll findings suggest there could be significant changes coming to state level politics. If the Republicans do win both chambers in the North Carolina General Assembly, the state will be facing a “divided government”, where a Republican General Assembly will try to coexist with a Democratic Governor, Beverly Perdue. On this last day to vote, students can make a difference about the direction of their state government and determine who will represent us for the next six years in the U.S. Senate.
Tyler Baxter and Emily Konides, seniors in political science, are also in Michael Cobb’s class. Please send your thoughts about parental effects on voting to [email protected].
