The No. 8 NC State women’s basketball team has long been a lock for the NCAA Tournament and has a potential shot at a No. 2 seed in the “Big Dance.” According to ESPN’s bracketology, the Wolfpack was a No. 1 seed in the Fort Wayne region before a home loss to Louisville last Thursday, and then disappointing home losses to Georgia Tech and Duke.

Before Monday night’s loss to the Blue Devils, ESPN’s bracketology had the Wolfpack sitting at a No. 2 seed, but directly following the loss, the team was bumped down to a No. 3 seed, according to the website.

NC State’s resume, as currently constructed, provides a conundrum for the NCAA Tournament selection committee. The Wolfpack sits at 23-4 with ranked wins over then-No. 9 Maryland and then-No. 13 Florida State. The team only had two losses, with one on the road against its rival, North Carolina, and at home against No. 9 Louisville, until a two-game home losing streak. A 65-61 loss to Georgia Tech and a 70-65 loss to Duke, both unranked but solid teams, staggered the Wolfpack completely.

The Wolfpack sits at just 22 in RPI, the lowest of any contender for a No. 2 seed, played only one ranked team in nonconference play and its only ranked win in ACC play is against a team that could drop out of the rankings come March. 

The most likely scenario for NC State is that the team clinches a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This scenario accounts for the team winning both of its remaining regular-season games and making a run in the ACC tournament, but ultimately losing in the championship game to Louisville. If the Wolfpack were to advance to the ACC Tournament championship game but lose to a team other than Louisville, its No. 3 seed odds get a lot murkier.

Although external factors such as other top contenders winning or losing could influence where NC State lands in the NCAA Tournament, the Wolfpack’s two-seed hopes are largely on the shoulders of Louisville. If the Cardinals advance to the ACC Tournament championship, the Wolfpack’s chances at a top-two seed remain possible.

After a 22-1 start and a No. 4 ranking as late as the middle of February, a No. 3 or No. 4 seed for this team would be a disappointment but both are likely outcomes. If the Wolfpack was to drop a regular-season game against one of its two remaining unranked opponents, bow out of the ACC Tournament before the championship game, or have both of these happen, then the Wolfpack is setting itself up for a No. 4 seed in the tournament, lower than last year’s team.

The Wolfpack will return to Reynolds Coliseum on Thursday, Feb. 27, as it takes on the Syracuse Orange, who sit at 9-7 in ACC play, in an attempt to right the ship before the ACC Tournament in early March.