The Oxford Languages Dictionary defines a day of reckoning as a testing time when the degree of one’s success or failure will be revealed.
Newly appointed men’s basketball coach Will Wade promised a “reckoning for college basketball” when he walked into Reynolds Coliseum last year, but it seems like that’s still on the way. While we wait, let’s do our own reckoning and evaluate where the Wolfpack stands at this point in the season: the team has already surpassed last year’s win total, although the trends are not exciting.
Three-point defense is still a struggle; few players have performed consistently, and clutch-time execution in Lenovo Center has been reminiscent of the previous, Kevin Keatts-coached roster. For now, there are at least some stats that tell a kinder story.
Even after an embarrassing Quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech, NC State is in the top-35 of the NET and other efficiency rankings, and its other five losses have come after going winless in Quad 1 games. Since the team belongs to the resurging ACC, the road ahead is rich with resume-building opportunities: NC State can lose plenty of the seven Quad 1 and five Quad 2 games that fill out its schedule and still make the NCAA tournament.
Does a disappointing regular season followed by some noise in the tournament count as a reckoning? There is a recent precedent, at least, that it’s enough for Wolfpack faithful.
Still, clinging to the tournament ticket that the team’s current NET ranking usually provides is not where fans were expecting to be at this point in the season. The offense, incredibly potent at times, is not always reliable. NC State has scored over a hundred points four times yet struggles to create quality shots when games come down to half-court possessions, coming up empty against Kansas and Georgia Tech one too many times (The team’s other losses were not competitive enough to create those situations).
Despite leading the ACC in 3-point percentage, the Wolfpack aren’t capitalizing on the threat that should create in opposing gameplans. For as many weapons, on paper, as the team has, it has been far too easy for good teams to key in on shooters, keep senior guard Quadir Copeland away from the basket and let the contested shots that ensue rim out. Guards like sophomore Paul McNeil Jr. and freshman Matt Able will look great in flashes and then not touch the ball for minutes at a time.
“I think by [the] middle of January, [Able’s] gonna be one of the best players in the country, one of the best freshmen in the country for sure,” Wade said after the season opener.
It’s the middle of January, and even the best lawyers would throw their hands up at that statement. Hopefully, fans will see more of the Able that Wade sees in the future, but in the meantime, the glimpses of potential are only good for his draft stock and highlight reels, not for winning games. He isn’t able to shine in his current role, and you see echoes of the same story when you look down the roster. All this leaves more work for Copeland, who — almost alone at times — is comfortable demanding the ball and creating his own shot.
Greater responsibility and all, Copeland has been a bright spot, averaging career-highs in points, field-goal percentage, three-point makes and assists. His acrobatic layups are both physically impressive and a necessary engine for the offense when games slow down.
Ideally, though, games do not slow down. Maybe you’ve been to the Lenovo Center and heard someone beside you question the value of the Wolfpack’s press if it’s not creating turnovers. You can tell them that the value is not found in turnovers, but in disrupting the other team’s rhythm and creating a faster pace of play.
In the free-flowing situations that it creates, the team looks comfortable, and the scoring can be prolific. Even beyond the press, NC State has put together strong stretches of defense, making up for a lack of size with aggressive switching and fierce one-on-one play. However, NC State was only able to fully set the pace in one of its five Quad 1 losses, a shootout with a Texas team that brought bigger guns.
Regardless of the absence of proof of accuracy, the tactics have largely stayed the same. If changes aren’t in the works, Wolfpack players will need to hang their hats on a more consistent level of defensive effort; the current formula crumbles under the light of big matchups and there are many more of those to come. Even though none of the remaining games would qualify as bad losses, every one of them will bear a mounting gravitas until NC State boasts a marquee win.
Wade’s inaugural project is drifting closer and closer to dire straits, but there is time left to figure things out and all results are on the table: In 2022, North Carolina and Iowa owned favorable NET rankings while staring down 0-7 Quad 1 records in the midst of conference play. Iowa lost in the first round of the tournament while North Carolina made it to the title game and earned some historic wins along the way.
Where will Wade take us?
