Plenty of people online have this notion that because No. 10 NC State baseball (14-2) took a few losses to some subpar teams — Lafayette (1-9) and Princeton (2-8) — it now has a minuscule chance of hosting an NCAA Regional, as only the top-16 teams in Division I get the honors.
Where did this arise? According to PEARatings in a post on X, a fairly prominent college baseball analytics account, since 2021, an ACC team has not hosted a regional with two losses as “bad” as the Wolfpack’s. Teams with just one similar loss to Lafayette or Princeton had to win between 19 to 22 of 30 conference games to get a hosting bid. And the Pack hasn’t cracked 19 ACC wins since 2021.
Lots of talk about NC State hosting. Since 2021, an ACC host has never had two losses as bad as Princeton and Lafayette.
Teams with at least one loss as bad as NC State’s who went on to host won 19, 19, 19, 20, 22 in conference. No ACC host has had two losses like NC State’s. https://t.co/OKUiCMMnsq
— PEARatings (@PEARatings) March 7, 2026
But this idea is based on a somewhat faulty assumption: Both teams are going to have losing seasons on a trajectory into the gutter. Currently, Lafayette’s metrics are not good — currently 240th in RPI — and its first win of the year came eight games into the season versus the Pack.
But the Leopards’ opening schedule has not been easy with four games versus Miami, an early ACC contender and a series versus William and Mary, a decent team in the Coastal Athletic Conference. To concede a game to the Leopards was surprising, but not dooming. The unvictorious start from Lafayette does not tell the full story. By the time the season concludes, it could be at the top of the Patriot League.
“I hope they win the Patriot League,” said head coach Elliott Avent after Game 2. “I’ll tell you one thing, if they play the way they played this weekend, unless the Patriot League is loaded, I think they will have a good chance.”
It’s a similar story for Princeton, who has only faced the Wolfpack, Duke and South Carolina, also picking up one win over the Blue Devils. At this point, it’s not a good loss, especially in the 1-0 shutout fashion that it occurred, but by the end of the season, it might not look so bad.
D1Baseball poll voters seem to agree, as in this week’s rankings, the Pack moved up to No. 10 from No. 13 after winning a midweek game 6-4 over No. 16 Coastal Carolina.
It’s also important to understand the context of the losses. The 1-0 loss versus Princeton came after the Pack beat the brakes off the Tigers 16-1, running out of offensive steam later in the day.
In the loss to Lafayette, the Pack’s ace junior lefty Ryan Marohn was benched due to bicep soreness — a cautionary measure from Avent, concerned about future considerations. In his place, redshirt junior Julien Peissel gave a disastrous performance, giving up a grand slam in the first inning and throughout the game, four of Lafayette’s six hits came in the form of homers.
“[Marohn] wanted to go,” Avent said. “It was something, maybe lifting [weights], just a little bicep … nothing to it. But it’s a long season and he’s such a competitor who always wants to go … I thought [he] was good today … I just always err on the side of caution.”
Even if Lafayette and Princeton go on to have terrible seasons in their respective conferences, hosting is not off the table, but it may require a solid run in the ACC.
The lineup in the field has begun to solidify at this point in the season, but the situation on the mound is still in flux. When ACC play comes around this weekend, we will get a fuller picture. But right now, there is no reason to panic or wave any red flags.
