Last season, the NC State women’s basketball team had one of the best seasons in program history. The Pack finished with a 25-8 (11-5 ACC) record en route to ranking No. 21 in the nation and earning a fifth seed in the NCAA Tournament.
However, expectations have been tempered this season, as NC State has already lost more games this season than it did all of last season, currently holding a 12-9 (3-5 ACC) record, good for 11th in the conference. A big part of the decline is that the team lost six seniors, three of whom started. Two of those starters were selected in the WNBA Draft.
Another big factor has been the numerous injuries. In the backcourt, senior guard and team captain Krystal Barrett is expected to miss the remainder of the season with an ACL injury. Freshman guard Chloe Jackson suffered a severe ankle injury in the beginning of the season and is also expected to miss the remainder of the season.
In the frontcourt, the Pack really only had two true centers in freshmen Akela Maize and Sara Boric. Maize suffered an ankle injury just before the season started and is still trying to work her way into the rotation and get valuable playing time. Boric, who came to NC State from Bosnia, is still waiting for the NCAA to grant her permission to play. As a result, junior forward Carlee Schuhmacher has been seeing the majority of the minutes at center.
In its defense, NC State’s unimpressive record has a lot to do with a difficult early schedule. It has already faced formidable teams in No. 8 Louisville, No. 13 North Carolina (twice) and No. 25 Syracuse. Four of its losses came against those teams. Its other ACC loss came against a mediocre Virginia team.
The Pack’s only three conference wins have come against Virginia Tech, Clemson and Wake Forest. Those three teams sit at the very bottom of the ACC standings, with one win conference win each.
In order for NC State to prove it belongs in the NCAA Tournament, it is going to prove it can beat some of the better teams in the conference. State has proved that it can compete, losing by fewer than 10 points against the Tar Heels, the Cardinals and the Cavaliers. However, playing close games is not enough to warrant a tournament bid.
“This is probably strongest league in the country,” head coach Wes Moore said. “If you can get some signature wins, you still have a chance. If we can get to eight or nine conference wins, we will have a chance. However, we don’t have those signature wins that we need.”
Coming off three consecutive losses, and losing four of the last five, NC State simply needs to start winning. A lighter schedule will help tremendously. Over the next five games, it plays Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Miami. Unlike three of the previous five opponents, none of those teams are ranked, and two have a lesser record than the Wolfpack.
However, the Pack faces a formidable final three games against No. 15 Duke, No. 9 Florida State and No. 4 Notre Dame.
“I feel like we believe in ourselves enough to do whatever we want,” sophomore guard Miah Spencer said. “Anything can happen. Anybody can be beaten. We just have to believe in ourselves as a team, as an organization, and give everything we have game in and game out.”
Last season, the NCAA Tournament featured seven ACC teams. Of those seven teams, Florida State finished with the worst record, going 20-11 (7-9 ACC) going into the NCAA Tournament.
In order to get to around that record, the Pack will likely need to win at least four of its next five games, then pull huge upsets against one or two of their final three opponents. Advancing to at least the semifinals in the ACC Tournament would also be a huge help.
If it is unable to do any of those three things, I don’t see any way that NC State will advance to the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years. Even if it is able to put up a strong rest of the season, the Pack is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament.
