The past year of cinema had me deleting and redownloading Letterboxd like it was Tinder. But the Oscars are coming up, which means it’s time to glue myself to this cursed app as I once again bet on the competence of the Academy — and once again lose it all.

I finished with a 60% accuracy rate for my 97th Academy Award predictions last year. In my defense, I plead temporary insanity from repeatedly listening to Timothée Chalamet sing “Like a Rolling Stone” while writing it.

This year, I’m back — Chalamet-free — and determined to redeem my record.

“Sinners” dominated the 98th Academy Awards nominations with 16 total nominees. It surpassed the record for most Academy Award nominations, which was previously jointly-held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14 nominations each. 

But having the most nominations doesn’t necessarily determine Best Picture, as demonstrated when “La La Land” was beaten by “Moonlight” in 2016.

Rather, the best way to predict an Oscar is to take a look at the precedents set by the Actor Awards, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs). These awards lead up to the Oscars and provide insight into what critics and audiences like best.

Even so, the winners are difficult to foresee due to the flawed voting system and divisive tastes of the Academy. While Oscars have a history of making cinephiles punch holes in their walls, I am nevertheless determined to discover the pattern of the bouncing DVD logo that composes the hive mind of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Best Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters”

This one’s a warm-up round to boost my confidence because there’s simply no contention here. The Academy might be stupid, but they’re not dumb, and as the most-streamed movie of 2025, its sheer impact makes it a shoo-in for this category.

Music (Original Song): “Golden,” “KPop Demon Hunters”

As explained above, the sensation and virality of “Golden” make it most likely to take home Best Original Song. The reach of the film is second only to the reach of its music.

Music (Original Score): “Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson

The mix of modern sounds, authentic homage and vocals in “Sinners” reaches the depths of my soul — this is what a blockbuster soundtrack should feel and sound like. 

“Sinners” is a film whose purpose is to experiment with different eras of sound in order to display the impact of music. Without music, there is no “Sinners.” For that reason, it’s the standout for Best Original Score.

Best Costume Design: “Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley

Kate Hawley managed to turn “Frankenstein,” a gothic tale of gore and daddy issues, into what Harper’s Bazaar called “the year’s biggest fashion film.” That takes talent, vision and a whole lot of Tiffany and Co. archival pieces. Hawley is reinventing the game, and will continue to do so with an Oscar under her belt. 

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

This one might be “record-farming” a little bit, because Jessie Buckley from “Hamnet” is almost guaranteed to secure Best Actress. Amidst the chaos of this awards season, Buckley has been an unwavering force, sweeping awards for best actress at the Actor Awards, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs — dang girl.

Buckley’s gripping performance has audiences and critics in a chokehold, one which I’d venture to guess the Academy is in as well.

Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

Every time I get overwhelmed with exams or my job, I try to remember that it could always be much worse — for instance, I could be part of Timothée Chalamet’s PR team. 

Considering that some people in the Academy don’t even watch the films, it’s pretty clear that getting an Oscar is mostly based on vibes. This, combined with the fact most of us form a social-media-based opinion about a movie before we even see it, means a great “Oscar campaign” has never been more important. 

Unfortunately for Lil Timmy Tim, after starting out strong with wins at both the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, his campaign started to sink faster than the Titanic. Someone needs to remind Chalamet that “Marty Supreme” is already in theaters, so he can drop the method acting.

Though, to be fair, “Titanic” did win Best Picture.

As for the other contenders, Michael B. Jordan pulled out a big win for his work in “Sinners” at the Actor Awards, however Robert Aramayo brought it home for “I Swear” at the BAFTAs. 

Aramayo is talented and charismatic, but his other win at the BAFTAs for “EE Rising Star” is indicative of his role in Hollywood right now — we love him, but we don’t know that much about him. Clearly the Academy feels the same way, as he unfortunately wasn’t nominated for an Oscar.

Jordan, on the other hand, has been in this game for a long time. Everyone in the Academy knows his name, regardless of whether or not they’ve done their homework. His hard-hitting, dual-threat performance in “Sinners” — plus the explosion of press it received after its record nomination count — has done wonders for his campaign. Jordan’s got this one locked up. 

Best Picture: “One Battle After Another”

While its immense nominations makes “Sinners” seem like a shoo-in for Best Picture, the Academy has a pretty consistent pattern of hating horror films. In fact, it’s been over 30 years since a horror film won Best Picture. So, as much as I love “Sinners,” I think the odds are in favor of “One Battle After Another.”

“Sinners” lost to “Hamnet” for Best Film in the drama genre at the Golden Globes, and has been beaten twice by “One Battle After Another” at the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. Additionally, “One Battle After Another” also picked up a win at the Golden Globes for Best Film in the musical or comedy genre. 

“One Battle After Another” is a bit of an acquired taste, but undeniably relevant and hard-hitting nonetheless. I enjoyed how it handles themes intelligently, without slapping you across the face with them. 

My personal choice might be “Bugonia” or “Sinners,” but “One Battle After Another” seems to be the way the Academy pendulum will swing.

Most Snubbed: “Wicked: For Good”

While this one didn’t break my heart as much as the “Challengers” snub last year, I still want to acknowledge the zero nominations awarded to “Wicked: For Good.” This film wasn’t my favorite, but nominating the entirely-virtual “costumes” in “Avatar: Fire and Ash” over Glinda’s 25-meter-long wedding veil and the hand-embroidered details on Madame Morrible’s coat seems absurd. Especially considering the designer, Paul Tazewell, won an Oscar just last year for his work on the first “Wicked.”

As I wrap up my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards, I’ll leave you with one final tidbit:

If “Marty Supreme” wins Best Picture, I’m quitting my job.